By Aaron Wherry - Friday, March 1, 2013 - 0 Comments
Mitch Wexler has updated his maps to apply the 2011 election result to the latest proposed boundaries for 2015. In the latest version, the Conservatives gain 23 seats, the New Democrats gain five and the Liberals gain two.
Wexler talks to Susan Delacourt about what to make (and what not to make) of all this.
Wexler says this is the product of plain arithmetic and not some political tilt to the redrawing. “The reason that the Conservatives pick up the most seats is because by pure math, when you add districts the party with the most seats will end up with more,” he said.
Nor should anyone be viewing this data as a prediction. In fact, Wexler notes, the 30 new seats, many in areas of high population growth, could make the next election volatile. “Most of the new seats will be (won) by narrower margins, so a swing in the election simply swings more seats,” he says.
Saskatchewan remains an interesting case. If the 2015 boundaries are applied to the 2011 results, the New Democrats finish two points behind in Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River (about 300 votes closer than they were in 2011), 1.6 percentage points ahead in the new riding of Regina-Lewvan and nine points ahead in new riding of Saskatoon West.
By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 8:00 AM - 0 Comments
The NDP has some general idea that it would like to win some seats on the Prairies somehow.
The party’s lack of seats in Saskatchewan was a point of focus for Thomas Mulcair during the party’s leadership race and the home of Tommy Douglas probably isn’t just of symbolic value to the New Democrats: gains in Ontario and British Columbia are going to be necessary, but the path to 170 seats probably has to include some gains in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Here the redistribution of ridings might help. By the latest proposals and Mitch Wexler’s math, the NDP gains one seat in Manitoba if the 2011 election results are applied to the proposed new boundaries: Winnipeg North going from a narrow loss to a seven-point win. Meanwhile, the party still wins Churchill and Winnipeg Centre and remains competitive in Elmwood-Transcona.
In Saskatchewan, the impact of redistribution could be more dramatic. In 2011, New Democrats finished within five points in three ridings. Under the new boundaries, the NDP wins two seats narrowly and is within five points in two ridings and within 10 points in one riding.
In theory, that’s five wins and another four ridings in which the party has some reason for hope—nine ridings out of a total of 28.
(Note: In the 2011 election, the NDP won 29% of the popular vote in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. In the Eric Grenier’s poll of polls, they drew 33% of the vote in December and spent most of 2012 in the mid-30s. It is probably also worth considering what impact an angry Brad Wall could have over the next few years and during an election campaign.)
By Aaron Wherry - Thursday, October 11, 2012 at 9:00 AM - 0 Comments
The Agenda looks at riding redistribution in Ontario.
Here again is PollMaps.ca’s assessment of how the 2011 results would translate to the proposed new map. Mitch Wexler has the Conservatives gaining 25 seats, the New Democrats gaining eight seats and the Liberals losing two seats.
By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, September 4, 2012 at 10:07 AM - 0 Comments
Mitch Wexler at PollMaps.ca has applied 2011′s election results to the proposed new riding maps. The Conservatives gain 25 seats, the NDP pick up eight seats and the Liberals somehow manage to lose two seats.
By Aaron Wherry - Tuesday, September 6, 2011 at 3:35 PM - 30 Comments
Conservative parties could be on the verge of claiming a majority of the country’s legislative seats.
“Right now, we have 481 seats out of 1,023 federal and provincial ridings, based on the most recent election or by-election in each,” said Wexler, who first presented this tally — and the challenge — to special Manning Centre briefings at last June’s federal Conservative convention in Ottawa. “So, to achieve half, or 512, there would need to be a net gain of 31 seats,” he says.
Another way to look at this: If the Progressive Conservatives win in Ontario and Manitoba (the two provinces most likely to change next month), every province west of Quebec will be represented by a conservative premier. Overall, conservatives would lead seven provinces—the Liberals two and the NDP one—and represent about 73% of the population.