Nanos, nit-picked (UPDATED)

By Andrew Potter - Friday, November 13, 2009 at 7:39 AM - 10 Comments

UPDATE: The tables are now up at the IRPP

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Free-agent pollster Nik Nanos has a new study out with the IRPP, looking at attitudes toward H1N1. According to the polling analysis, “Seven Canadians in ten aren’t at all worried or are not very worried about H1N1, despite saturation coverage in the media about Ottawa’s ability to provide an adequate supply of vaccine and the provinces’ capacity to meet the demand.”

I’ll take his word for it — I have not yet been able to find the complete tables on the site. (Can you? I must be looking in the wrong place).

There is one weird passage in the analysis. Nanos writes:

Although a pandemic in name, public opinion at the time of the Nanos-Policy Options survey indicates that with a strong majority of Canadians not worried about H1N1, this may be perceived as more of a nasty flu than a pandemic.

The contrast between “nasty flu” and “pandemic” seems to be a category mistake. “Pandemic” is not a measure of the severity of the illness or of how sick it makes you, it is a combined measure of the novelty of the illness in the population, its global distribution, and its infectiousness. The seasonal flu is a pandemic, regardless of how nasty or nice it is. Here’s the wikipedia def of pandemic.

This is a common mistake. I suspect it comes from a false assumption that the word “pandemic” is a combination of “panic” and “epidemic” — an epidemic so nasty we should panic!

Anyhoo, here’s the Nanos press release:

Continue…

And finally, a pun

By Aaron Wherry - Friday, November 6, 2009 at 11:29 PM - 35 Comments

Speaking to reporters after QP today, Liberal David McGuinty adds what has obviously been missing from the H1N1 discussion to date.

Bonjour.  Hello, everyone.  I’d like to start making a few comments about the state of H1N1.  We have come to the conclusion that what we’re facing now in this Conservative government is a plandemic.

Time to do your part

By The Editors - Thursday, November 5, 2009 at 10:20 AM - 4 Comments

As an exercise in public health preparedness, Canada’s reaction to the H1N1 flu threat has been a remarkable success so far. Whether the public health outcome is as successful depends on what individual Canadians decide in the coming weeks.

At a cost of over $400 million, the federal government has acquired 50 million doses of vaccine, sufficient for all Canadians who request it. This week Ottawa also announced a supplementary supply from Australia specifically for pregnant women, due to potential concerns about a pharmacological agent used in the main batch. The massive rollout of the vaccine across the country to date has been, for the most part, competently handled. Continue…

Swine flu fiasco

By Cathy Gulli - Monday, October 19, 2009 at 11:26 AM - 233 Comments

In a few weeks, every adult in Canada will decide if they (and their children) will get the flu vaccine to protect against H1N1. At the best of times, it seems the decision of whether or not to get the seasonal flu shot is tough to make. Only about one-third of Canadians do each year. Now, with the pandemic vaccine arriving in doctor’s offices in November, Canadians are being asked to get a second shot this fall.

But will they? Probably not. A recent poll shows that, as of the first week of October, only one in three Canadians plan on getting the H1N1 vaccine, according to Harris/Decima. That’s down from 45 per cent in late August. Experts say this reflects the public’s growing apathy toward the pandemic in light of seemingly contradictory information about H1N1 (which is commonly referred to as swine flu, even though it’s a combination of flu viruses from pigs, birds and humans). People are being bombarded by “on the one hand” and “on the other hand” studies and recommendations. “There is confusion,” says Dr. Sarah Kredentser, president of the College of Family Physicians of Canada. “And I think it’s warranted confusion, because the messages keep changing.” Continue…

People at risk

By Kate Lunau - Thursday, July 16, 2009 at 3:40 PM - 17 Comments

Rumour has it swine flu came to St. Theresa Point, in northern Manitoba, with a Catholic priest who visited Mexico in March. He flew directly into the tiny First Nations community, locals say, leaving one week later because he was so sick. Whether that’s how the H1N1 virus landed at the reserve or not, one thing’s certain: by early May, many residents there were very sick. The virus spread like wildfire to neighbouring First Nations communities.

In the global H1N1 pandemic, Canada has been disproportionately hit. Our national infection rate is now 24 per 100,000 people, significantly higher than Mexico’s, which is nine per 100,000, or that of the United States, which is 11. Even so, “the raw numbers alone aren’t helpful,” says Alan Davidson, associate professor of health studies at the University of British Columbia, Okanagan. To address the problem, he says, “we have to have an understanding of who’s being affected.” Continue…

How to manage phase six

By Michael Friscolanti - Thursday, May 14, 2009 at 5:00 PM - 3 Comments

Canada’s official “Pandemic Influenza Plan” is 550 pages long, including glossary and acknowledgements. The few devoted readers who make it to page 371—“Guidelines for the Management of Mass Fatalities”—will encounter a brief but blunt discussion about this nightmare scenario: if every funeral parlour in town is filled to capacity, what happens to the overflow of flu-infected corpses?

The local hockey arena (as long as it’s chillier than eight degrees Celsius) could double as a makeshift morgue, the report says. So could a curling rink. But of all the possible storage solutions, the federal government’s pandemic playbook endorses one option above all others. “Refrigerated trucks can generally hold 25-30 bodies without additional shelving,” the document declares. “To increase storage capacity, temporary wooden shelves can be constructed of sufficient strength to hold the bodies. Shelves should be constructed in such a way that allows for safe movement and removal of bodies (i.e. storage of bodies above waist height is not recommended).”

Continue…

We have a choice of many kinds of apocalypse

By Scott Feschuk - Thursday, May 7, 2009 at 8:20 AM - 1 Comment

Regular readers value this column as a source of important information, such as how humanity may perish in a killer robot apocalypse. But this space is also useful for those with other interests, such as how humanity may perish in other kinds of apocalypses.

Welcome to another instalment of . . . What’s Potentially Annihilating Us Now?

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Swine flu: In the footsteps of a flu

By Michael Friscolanti - Thursday, April 30, 2009 at 5:20 PM - 1 Comment

THE NUMBERS
The official infection count continues to climb. As of this afternoon (April 30) there are at least 262 confirmed swine flu cases around the globe—a significant jump from yesterday’s tally of 148. Most of the patients are in Mexico (97, including seven deaths) and the United States (109; one death) but the virus has also spread to nine other nations: Canada (32 cases), the United Kingdom (8), Spain (13), Germany (3), New Zealand (3), Israel (2), and the Netherlands, Austria and Switzerland with one case each. Much of the spike can be attributed to the fact that Mexico—the suspected “ground zero” of the current outbreak—is still in the early stages of testing patients. Over the past week, Mexican officials have blamed the new swine flu for up to 178 fatalities and almost 3,000 illnesses, but very few of those cases have actually been scientifically validated. Laboratory technicians are now frantically examining thousands of lung swabs, trying to figure out which potential cases are officially linked to the new virus. Yesterday it was 26. Today it’s 97. Expect that figure to jump even higher by tomorrow. But don’t be surprised if some of those 3,000 illnesses—and the 178 deaths—turn out to be unrelated to swine flu.

CANADA
Like the rest of the world, confirmed illnesses are also on the rise in Canada. With four new cases in Nova Scotia, four in Alberta, three in British Columbia, one in Quebec and one in Ontario, the country’s swine flu tally is now 32 (nine in British Columbia, eight in Nova Scotia, eight in Ontario, six in Alberta, and one in Quebec). The surge, however, is not the most disturbing development. Health authorities in Nova Scotia revealed today that they have encountered the first human-to-human transmission on Canadian soil. The first four cases on the Atlantic coast were teenagers at a private school in Windsor, N.S., who contracted the virus during a spring break vacation in Mexico. Until now, every the other Canadian case also involved people who recently returned from Mexico. But of the four new cases reported today in Nova Scotia, one did not participate in the school trip. Instead, the unnamed student fell ill after coming into contact with another classmate. Leona Aglukkaq, the federal health minister, did not mention that fact during her daily press briefing with reporters. “Thankfully, all cases in Canada continue to be mild,” she said. “I repeat again, these new cases were anticipated and do not affect our approach. Aglukkaq also announced that the government is launching a “national citizens’ awareness campaign” tomorrow morning. “We want all Canadians to have the information they need to protect themselves and their families,” she said. “I want to reassure Canadians that our government is prepared to deal with this situation and we will do whatever it takes to protect Canadians and their families during this time.”

BEYOND THE NUMBERS
Although the World Health Organization jacked up its so-called “pandemic meter” to the second-highest level on Wednesday, officials are downplaying suggestions that a worldwide pandemic­—or Phase 6, as it’s known—is imminent. “As of today, that assessment holds steady,” said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the WHO’s assistant director-general of Health Security and Environment. “We do not have any evidence to suggest that we should move to Phase 6 today, or that any such move is imminent right now.” During his daily press briefing, Dr. Fukuda tried to explain why, in just two days, the alert level vaulted from Phase 3 to Phase 5. Phase 3, he said, indicates that an animal influenza virus (avian, for example, or swine) has infected people, but not at a high rate. When the WHO moved to Phase 4 on Monday, it was because the evidence revealed that this newest flu—a never-before-seen mixture of avian, swine and human influenzas—was capable of spreading from person to person at a relatively rapid clip. And the jump to Phase 5? That came after “sustained” human-to-human transition was confirmed in at least two countries (Mexico and the United States). “These phases are not intended to be a barometer of the epidemiology per se,” Dr. Fukuda said. “It’s really a warning and an alert to countries and to the global population that the risk of this new virus spreading and reaching their countries is now judged to be significantly higher. It’s really a call for governments and people to really take stronger preparations, to move ahead and take the preparations that they need to reduce the health impact of a new virus.” The final impact, though, is impossible to predict. Remember, a pandemic does not automatically mean that millions will die. Pandemic simply means “widespread.” The real question is whether this swine flu results in widespread muscle aches or widespread funerals. “The move from pandemic alert Phase 4 to 5 means we are closer to this being a pandemic virus,” explained Dr. David Butler-Jones, Canada’s chief public health officer. “To clarify, the WHO’s pandemic alert level speaks to the current global situation. It’s really a global snapshot of what the state of the outbreak is on a global scale. Right now, that snapshot shows that a pandemic is highly likely. How severe it is remains to be seen.”

VICE PRESIDENTIAL
Joe Biden certainly seems to think the end is nigh. In an interview with the Today Show, Barack Obama’s right-hand man said he has warned friends and relatives to stay away from airplanes and subway trains. “I would tell members of my family—and I have—that I wouldn’t go anywhere in confined places now,” Biden said. “It’s not just going to Mexico, if you’re in a confined aircraft and one person sneezes it goes all the way through the aircraft. That’s me. I would not be at this point, if they had another way of transportation, suggesting they ride the subway.” Many countries, including Canada and the U.S., are encouraging citizens to avoid unnecessary trips to Mexico. But nobody—not even the World Health Organization—is urging people to avoid air travel. “To suggest that people not fly at this stage of things is a broad brush stroke bordering on fear mongering,” said Tim Smith, a spokesman for American Airlines. Not surprisingly, Biden’s office has issued a “clarification.” Said a spokeswoman: “The advice he is giving family members is the same advice the administration is giving to all Americans: that they should avoid unnecessary air travel to and from Mexico. If they are sick, they should avoid airplanes and other confined public spaces, such as subways.” Ah, yes. That’s exactly what he meant.

TAKE YOUR MEDICINE
According to the experts, there is plenty of Tamiflu to go around. The leading antiviral flu drug, patented and produced by Roche Holding AG, is not in short supply, and if a pandemic does strike the company assures us it can make as many pills as the world needs. However, recent lab tests—including some conducted by Canada’s National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg—have shown that Tamiflu is not effective against the H1N1 virus that causes the common flu. Which, of course, raises a troubling question: if Tamiflu doesn’t work against the common Type A/H1N1 flu virus, will it be an effective against this new strain, which is a so-called “distant cousin” of H1N1? Speaking of medication, Dr. Fukuda was asked how long it would take to create a vaccine that will protect against this newest strain. The answer: months, not weeks. “In order to make a vaccine against a new virus, such as this new H1N1 virus, you have to go through several different steps,” he explained. “And going through these steps takes months of work, even when you accelerate the pace at which you’re doing them.” In other words, keep coughing into your sleeve.

WHAT’S IN A NAME?

In the hopes of dispelling the outbreak’s biggest myth—that eating pork causes swine flu—The World Health Organization says it will stop using the phrase “swine flu.” It will instead refer to the virus by its scientific name: “H1N1 influenza A.” Dr. Butler-Jones said Canadian officials will follow the WHO’s lead. “From this time, we will be referring to this human virus as the H1N1 flu virus, to make it very clear that this disease is not spread from pigs or from either pork or pork products.” Unfortunately, the Egyptian government didn’t get the memo. At last check, every pig in the country is still slated for slaughter.

• In the U.S., schools are closing by the hundreds: 200 in Texas, 62 in Alabama, and scattered closings in New York, California, South Carolina, Connecticut, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Arizona, Ohio, Utah, Washington state, Michigan and Maine. In Texas, Governor Rick Perry has issued an official disaster declaration and suspended all high-school sports until May 11.

• Mexico is closed for business. Acting on the orders of President Felipe Calderon, government offices and private businesses not crucial to the economy have shut their doors in an attempt to avoid further infection. “There is no safer place than your own home to avoid being infected with the flu virus,” Calderon said in his first televised address since the outbreak started. The official shutdown is expected to last until May 5.

• A Mexico City toddler who became the first swine-flu death on U.S. soil spent a day with his family shopping at a huge Houston indoor mall the day before he began to show symptoms. Cameron County Judge Carlos Cascos, who spoke with the boy’s aunt, said the family spent three nights in Houston just before he fell ill. After spending time in Houston, including at The Galleria mall, they drove the 350 miles back to Brownsville, where he was hospitalized on April 8. Houston health officials now say another boy—a 10-year-old American—is recovering from swine flu.