Projecting the projections
By Aaron Wherry - Friday, April 29, 2011 - 1 Comment
Paul Adams considers the seat projection predicament.
For the record, I am generally a believer in the usefulness of seat projections, and continue to be so in this election, which promises to be historic in some ways. However, I also think that there are reasons to be more cautious about them in elections where there is potential structural change, and where there is volatility late in the campaign.
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Prodigal sons and daughters
By Paul Wells - Wednesday, September 17, 2008 at 1:50 PM - 45 Comments
From our friend Paul Adams, who seems to be everywhere this autumn and who is blogging on these Ekos robo-polls for — well, for his employer, Ekos, I’ve brazenly swiped this damned interesting chart. In return for my larceny, I ask you to follow the link to Paul’s explanation. My own explanation comes below, after the chart…
Voter Retention
Reported Vote – 2006
Vote Intention – 2008
CPC
LPC
NDP
BQ
Green
Did not vote
Conservative
84
18
5
9
11
35
Liberal
6
62
13
5
13
18
NDP
5
11
74
11
6
30
Bloc Québécois
1
1
1
71
2
1
Green
4
8
7
4
68
16
This chart collates some of what pollsters call “cross-tabs” from the latest Ekos Cylon Terminator robo-poll. Stated party support from the 2006 election is cross-indexed with stated party preference in this election right here now. So if you look down from “CPC,” you see that 84% of people who seem to recall voting for the Harper Conservatives in 2006 are now planning to vote for the Harper Conservatives again. Similarly, the NDP seems likely to keep 74% of its 2006 voters, the Bloc 71% of their voters, the Greens 68%, and… the Dion Liberals are on track to keep 62% of those who voted for the Paul Martin Liberals.
Where are those leaking Liberals leaking to? One in five of them plan to vote for the Harper Conservatives. In contrast, only 6% of 2006 Harper Conservative voters are angry enough to plan to switch to the Liberals.
Anyway, Paul Adams has more.
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More more more meta
By Paul Wells - Friday, September 12, 2008 at 4:22 PM - 12 Comments
Carleton University’s School of Journalism and Communications has a blog devoted exclusively to how the media cover the election. So you vote; politicians try to influence it; journalists cover the politicians; and the Carleton crew blogs about the journalists. Now that‘s meta!!!
But it’s an A-team: Jeff Sallot, late of the Globe; Chris Waddell of long service at the Globe and the CBC; and Paul Adams, who worked for many years at the CBC and the Globe and whose humour we all miss on campaign tours. (Early in the 1997 campaign I watched Jean Chrétien poke his head out of a train car in Montreal for a photo op. “Incredibly, this is the high point of my career,” I said, bored speechless. “I’m not surprised,” Paul replied.)
