Romney’s veep choice

By John Parisella - Monday, April 23, 2012 at 7:10 PM - 0 Comments

The recent chatter since Mitt Romney has all but been served up the Republican nomination has begun to revolve around who he will choose as his vice-presidential nominee.

History has shown that voters tend to vote for the top of the ticket more than the ticket itself. However, there have been instances where a vice-presidential choice has made a difference. Lyndon B. Johnson is credited with delivering his home state of Texas for John F. Kennedy, enabling the latter’s election as president.

There is no one dominant criteria for choosing a Vice Presidential nominee. The constitution does not provide for much beyond being “next in line” should the president be unable to fulfill his functions, as well as presiding over the U.S. Senate.

In recent years, some vice presidents have played a more substantial role than that described by John Nance Garner, Vice President to Franklin D. Roosevelt, who referred to his job “as not worth more than a bucket of warm spit”.  Al Gore, Dick Cheney and now Joe Biden are examples of the new trend in Vice Presidents: engaged and highly influential.

There’s no denying the potential importance of the position. Lyndon B. Johnson replaced John F. Kennedy, and passed significant transformational legislation such as civil rights, Medicaid and Medicare. Gerald Ford, who replaced Richard Nixon after Watergate, played an important role in soothing the wounds of the nation. And finally, Harry S Truman, who took over after Roosevelt’s death, brought World War II to an end.

Today, we often hear speculation about what a vice-presidential candidate can bring to the ticket. Will the candidate carry his or her home state? Will the candidate attract particular constituencies to help the ticket to victory? Does the candidate fill a need that the Presidential candidate does not?

It should be noted that in 10 of the last 16 Presidential elections, the vice-presidential candidate has failed to deliver his home state. In recent years, the choices of Democrat Geraldine Ferrero and Republican Sarah Palin  have failed to provide the impetus among women to help the national ticket.

Romney will take all these factors into consideration.

Governor Mitch Daniels, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and Ohio
Senator Rob Portman are often mentioned as potential veep selections.

Add Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and you can see Romney has a respectable bench to choose from.

But the deciding factor in the election remains the presidential candidate himself. Mitt Romney is not very charismatic, has yet to deliver an articulate program for the future, suffers an enthusiasm deficit with his party base, and comes out of primary season with higher unfavorables among key voting blocs such as women and Latinos.

None of the aforementioned candidates appear to improve substantially on Romney’s liabilities at this point. At the end of the day, Romney holds the key to his victory. Choosing his running mate will be his first major decision of a presidential nature. The economy makes President Obama vulnerable and we all know this will be a close and hard fought campaign. So how and whom he chooses his running mate will matter.

Ironically, once chosen, the veep candidate will not be the major factor in the choice of voters—unless someone of Sarah Palin’s stripe becomes Romney’s sidekick. That kind of candidate selection would say more about the character and judgment of the presidential nominee, and with that in mind, you would not want him as president.

The gloves are off, as Romney turns his attacks toward Obama

By John Parisella - Thursday, April 19, 2012 at 8:09 PM - 0 Comments

With Mitt Romney now the unofficial Republican nominee, the endorsements from the GOP leadership are rapidly coming forward.  Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have given their blessing to the eventual standard bearer. Romney himself now directs all his attacks against President Obama. The Republican contest is nominally over, and the search for a potential Vice Presidential nominee is on in the Romney camp.

President Obama has been in campaign mode since the debt ceiling debate of last summer. Buoyed by better economic numbers and a discourse about greater economic fairness, Obama has recovered his approval ratings of a year ago after the disastrous summer showdown on the debt (47% according to Real Clear Politics average of polls ). Those ratings may be modest, but they are clearly more encouraging to the incumbent than a few months ago.

Despite these gains in recent months, Obama is still facing a close election unless Romney collapses from the scrutiny and the pressures of a Presidential campaign. This is unlikely, and noted Republican professional operatives like Ed Gillespie, Karl Rove, Charlie Black and others who have been closely involved with the Romney campaign will make sure it won’t happen.  While the primary season and the Santorum challenge showed cracks in Romney’s candidacy, it is clear that a sluggish economy remains the front-and-center issue of the campaign. And here Obama is vulnerable.

Recent polls show Obama’s lead over Romney falling to a near toss-up. How Romney has been able to reduce the gap has little to do with his message or his skills. It has all to do with questions of jobs, economic security, and what Obama promised in 2008, hope. The goal of the Romney campaign is to make this election a referendum on Obama and his handling of the economy.

Poll numbers show this to be a potentially winning strategy, especially if last month’s job creation numbers of 120,000 (down from 230,000 the month before) become a trend. The Obama people are acutely aware of this and are countering with a strategy pitting their vision of the direction of the country against the one from Romney. They are quick to point out that Romney intends on continuing Bush type policies. The rhetoric on both sides leaves little ambiguity.

Referendum on Obama or on the direction of the country? It is unlikely that either strategy will win the day outside of their respective bases. The Democratic base will rally enthusiastically to the Obama approach, fearing the rule of the hard right of the GOP over the White House and Congress as well as eventual appointees to the US Supreme Court . The Republicans will do their best to blame all that is wrong in the US on Obama, and camouflaging the Bush policies that had a lot to do with the debt problems and the economic meltdown of 2007-2009. Independent voters will be caught in the middle with no clear winner in sight. Then, what will be the deciding factor?

I believe that the candidates themselves, their character and their temperament will play a role with independent voters.  Here, a recent CNN poll showed strong favorables for Obama, and higher unfavorables for Romney. The primaries took their toll on Romney. Also, the question of the voting intentions of key constituencies in swing states will play a role. For instance, much is said about the current advantage Obama holds with women voters and the growing Latino vote. So this election is far from over and difficult to predict at this juncture.

We can say that it appears we’re heading for a cliffhanger. However, one should not underestimate the power of incumbency, temperament and character, and the likeability factor associated with the candidates. And here Obama currently has the advantage. The gloves are now off.

Good news for Mitt

By John Parisella - Wednesday, April 11, 2012 at 7:07 PM - 0 Comments

Rick Santorum has announced his withdrawal from the Republican nomination contest, much to the relief of establishment Republicans. While Santorum came from far behind and put up a valiant battle, it was clear he had neither the financial nor organizational resources to stop Mitt Romney. But he does finish as the strongest conservative contender after the former Massachusetts governor, and this can only give him some leverage down the road.

Santorum’s voice was that of the social conservatives, arguably the most vociferous of the GOP rank and file. His voice was more authentic to the party’s base, despite the fact that his views carried little favor with the overall electorate.

He was able with few resources to win Iowa, and perform with aplomb in the other primaries and caucuses. In so doing, he portrayed himself as the most solid and reliable conservative in the race. Newt Gingrich may have tried to be the Romney alternative, but his past failings made him unreliable to the socially conservative base. Santorum was seen as one to be trusted.

Santorum, however, did little to help the Republican brand. If anything, his diatribes on the separation of Church and State were out of step with today’s political values. His battle against the contraception policy of the Obama Administration may have been framed as one in favor of religious freedom, but it only alienated women in general, and contributed to the GOP’s current challenge attracting women voters. Obama could only have wished for Santorum to stay in the race longer, as he was unconsciously becoming the president’s best ally.

As for Romney, Santorum made the former governor appear unsteady and too reactive. To a large extent, he attacked Romney more on content and values than the other candidates in the race did, and did some serious damage. As a result, Romney emerged more vulnerable to Obama attacks later in the campaign. Today, Mitt’s unfavorables are higher mostly because Santorum proved to be a far more effective and authentic campaigner. His withdrawal can only be good news for Mitt.

What next? Gingrich has all but conceded this past weekend. Santorum will eventually endorse Romney. Neither will be vice-presidential material, but they will both be making speeches at the convention in Tampa this summer. The hard right, made up of Tea Party types and social conservatives, will now use the party platform at the convention to make sure Romney does not re-morph into the “moderate” former Massachusetts Governor. You know, the one he (Mitt Romney) was pretending not to be and hoping we would forget.

Obama, ironically, comes out of the Republican exercise stronger. But Romney no longer has to fight on two fronts. He can now concentrate on Obama, in light of the sluggish economic  picture, and try to make this election a referendum on the President. This in itself may appeal to independent voters and thus reduce the gap Obama has established in recent weeks.

So we can expect Romney to climb in the polls soon, but Santorum showed that Romney is not as strong as we all thought.

This, the Obama people have noticed as well.

Santorum quits, Romney set for GOP nomination

By Gustavo Vieira - Wednesday, April 11, 2012 at 6:00 AM - 0 Comments

Rick Santorum suspended his campaign for the Republican nomination on Tuesday, effectively paving the way for Mitt Romney to claim his spot on the ballots for the presidential election in the United States later this year.

Santorum held a news conference Tuesday afternoon to say he took the decision with his family over the weekend, and while he did not exactly explain why he was quitting the nomination race, he also did not offer his endorsement behind any of the remaining candidates.

Santorum, who was widely seen as the last candidate capable of challenging Romney, quit just weeks before a tough primary in his home state of Pennsylvania. Although Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are still officially racing against Romney, it’s unlikely that either of the two will be able to gather enough delegates to win the Republican ticket to run against U.S. President Barack Obama.

With Wisconsin over, Newt and Santorum should go

By John Parisella - Wednesday, April 4, 2012 at 2:50 PM - 0 Comments

The general consensus in U.S. Republican circles (outside of the usual pundit spin) is that the primary season did little to advance the GOP cause. Last autumn, a generic Republican candidate was generally ahead of President Obama in matchup polls.

This Tuesday, Romney won three races and most importantly, Wisconsin. Now we know Mitt Romney’s win in the GOP nomination contest is inevitable, yet his unfavorables are currently at 50 per cent compared to 32 per cent favorables in a recent Washington Post NBC poll. A gender gap of 18 per cent in favor of Obama has also developed. And lest we forget: Hispanic voters are at 14 per cent support for Romney.

With Romney’s win in Wisconsin, we should expect an earlier withdrawal of Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich from the race than was anticipated a few weeks ago. Ron Paul, the Libertarian standard bearer, may stay in the contest but he is a negligible factor. Recent signals from both Santorum and Gingrich indicate that they would be willing to serve in a Romney administration. Meanwhile, Romney is picking up endorsements from establishment Republicans by the handful. Should Santorum and Gingrich stay the course, they would demonstrate a lack of judgment. And that will make them less attractive to Romney down the road.

However, reality will soon catch up to Romney’s opponents. Money still plays a major role in U.S. politics and will actually increase in the months ahead. Here Romney maintains a significant edge. Gingrich has lost his principal benefactor and recently fired his principal campaign director. The outlook for him is greater campaign debt and becoming more marginal than he already is.

Santorum is no longer trashing Romney to the same extent, and says he would consider the Vice Presidential nod with Romney. Santorum has proven to be an effective campaigner, but his views are clearly out of the mainstream and in the minority within the Republican party. The best he can do is drive Romney’s unfavorables higher. Not a good prospect if you want a future in the GOP.

So we can expect Romney to be confirmed much earlier than was anticipated a few days ago. This may not be good news for Obama, who prefers a longer Republican race. In addition, Obama is wrestling with higher gas prices, a fragile recovery, and approval figures in the 40s. The earlier it becomes a two-person race between Obama and Romney, with a nearly 50-50 type electorate, and unlimited access to huge amounts of money, the more this race will be polarizing and tight this autumn. This is the wish of the Republican establishment.

Finally, Romney may have proven to be a weaker candidate on the hustings than was originally thought, but his current GOP opponents have far greater liabilities. Romney has been merciless in his attacks on Santorum and Gingrich. He owes them little right now. An early withdrawal could be enough for him to begin gravitating to the centre (remember the ‘Etch a Sketch’ metaphor), and thus become even more competitive against Obama in the presidential showdown next November. Time for Santorum and Gingrich to go.

Romney takes three more primaries, exchanges barbs with Barack Obama

By Alex Ballingall - Wednesday, April 4, 2012 at 11:11 AM - 0 Comments

After sweeping three Republican primaries on Tuesday, it’s looking more and more likely that Mitt Romney will become the Republican nominee for the U.S. presidency. He’s also acting like it, exchanging barbs with U.S. President Barack Obama after his three wins. The New York Times called the day “in some respects the start of the general election.”

Romney won decisively in the District of Columbia and Maryland, and was also victorious in Wisconsin, which was the tightest race of the three. “The dreamers can dream a little bigger, the help wanted signs can be dusted off, and we can start again,” Romney said, according to the New York Times. “And this time we’ll get it right.”

He also turned his attention to Obama, describing him as deluded and out of touch with American voters. “President Obama thinks he’s doing a good job—I’m not kidding,” he said. “It’s enough to make you think that years of flying around on Air Force One, surrounded by an adoring staff of true believers telling you that you’re great and you’re doing a great job, it’s enough to make you think that you might become a little out of touch.”

Romney wins Illinois primary, earning Jeb Bush’s backing in the process

By Gustavo Vieira - Wednesday, March 21, 2012 at 12:08 PM - 0 Comments

Mitt Romney won the Illinois primary by a large margin on Tuesday night, further solidifying his lead over the other candidates in the Republican nomination race. Claiming he’s best qualified to defeat President Obama in November, Romney earned a sizable, convincing victory, over his closest opponent, Rick Santorum, according to CNN and the New York Times. Romney claimed at least 41 of the 54 delegates, according to the Associated Press.

Following the Illinois victory, Romney received a crucial endorsement from former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who urged his fellow Republicans to end the primaries at once in favour of a Romney candidacy for president. Bush, the brother of one president and the son of another, has previously declined endorsing a candidate.

However, as the Globe and Mail’s Konrad Yakabuski points out, and several other commentators agree, the race is not over yet with 23 primaries to go, the next one in the southern state of Louisiana on Saturday, even if Romney seems to be inching closer.

World breathes sigh of relief as Romney wins Arizona, Michigan

By Richard Warnica - Wednesday, February 29, 2012 at 10:23 AM - 0 Comments

Mitt Romney didn’t exactly dominate in Michigan, but he did win on Tuesday, and at this point, you have to imagine that’s good enough for him. The Republican frontrunner eked out a victory in the state where he was raised, securing 41 per cent of the vote and beating back Rick Santorum, who came in a close second with 38 per cent. Romney also captured a crucial Arizona primary by a much wider 47 to 27 per cent margin. Romney admitted in the lead up to Tuesday’s vote that his penchant for talking about his own wealth was probably hurting him. Couple that with his opposition to the auto bailout, credited with saving GM and thousands of Michigan jobs, and a win, even a tight one, in the Wolverine State looks more impressive.

“For a politician who often comes across as an out-of-touch rich weenie, he has shown an ability to take some blows that will serve him well later on,” the New Yorker’s John Cassidy wrote on Tuesday night. But the real winner, Cassidy believes, was Barack Obama. Had Romney lost, the odds of a Jeb Bush or Chris Christie entering the race would only have grown.

GOP: not even the end of the beginning

By Colby Cosh - Friday, January 27, 2012 at 8:37 AM - 0 Comments

A data refresher for those who are following U.S. politics and feeling winded after all these Republican royal rumbles:

Republican debates held so far: 19

Democratic debates already held by this date in 2008: 20

Candidates still remaining in the Democratic race on this date: 3 (Barack Obama, John Edwards, Hillary Clinton)

Date of 26th and final Democratic debate in 2008: April 16

Date on which Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign and endorsed Obama as the candidate: June 7

Yeah, so get comfortable. It is easy to forget how much happened, and how late, in the Democratic race of 2008. The swollen Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, was all but tied. Obama’s money advantage pulled him slightly ahead through February (remember Austan Goolsbee’s back-fence chat about how Obama’s threats against NAFTA shouldn’t be taken too seriously?). Clinton bounced back on “Mini-Super Tuesday”, March 4. The Jeremiah Wright controversy hit the Obama campaign on March 14, during a long stretch without primary events. Clinton won Pennsylvania April 26; much of May was consumed by a wrangle over pro-Clinton Florida and Michigan delegations that had been chosen in primaries held on unlawful dates; and Obama didn’t seal the deal mathematically until a rush of superdelegate endorsements arrived June 3.

There is a perception in this Republican contest that Mitt Romney has been a tad slow to wrap things up, but the Republicans weren’t done either by this point in 2008; John McCain only saw off Romney on Super Tuesday, and Mike Huckabee hung around until Mini-Super Tuesday in March. (Ron Paul’s 2008 campaign just kept going. In fact, it’s pretty much still going.) Only 11 states hold primary events on this year’s Super Tuesday, March 6, so this contest could easily have some life in it until June. It is much too early to be talking of a brokered convention, although people will keep talking about it because it’s what every political journalist hopes for. (They love nostalgia, spectacle, and expense accounts. A national convention without a preordained ending would be Elysium.)

Huntsman quits GOP race, endorses Romney

By macleans.ca - Monday, January 16, 2012 at 12:35 PM - 0 Comments

Former Utah Gov. John Huntsman Jr. formally dropped out of the Republican presidential race on Monday morning, saying the contest had “degenerated into an onslaught of negative and personal attacks not worthy of the American people.” The moderate Republican threw his support behind front-runner Mitt Romney, in the week leading up to the crucial South Carolina primary. The endorsement, however, is not enough to secure Romney’s place in the GOP ballot for this year’s presidential election. Mitt Romney still faces challenges from conservatives Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, and to a lesser extent Rick Perry and Ron Paul, all of whom stand much farther to the right than Romney. While offering his endorsement to Romney, Huntsman said he believed Republicans should “unite around the candidate best equipped to defeat Barack Obama.”

The New York Times

Romney wins New Hampshire primary

By macleans.ca - Wednesday, January 11, 2012 at 9:59 AM - 0 Comments

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney comfortably won the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, gaining momentum as the frontrunner in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, the Financial Times reports. Romney, who was expected to win the contest, captured over 39 per cent of the vote, prevailing by a significant margin over Ron Paul, the libertarian Texas congressman, who came in second with nearly 23 per cent. Jon Huntsman, the former Utah governor, who had pinned his campaign on a strong show in New Hampshire, came in third with nearly 17 per cent. Rick Santorum, who had trailed Romney by a mere eight votes in the Iowa caucuses last week, seized only nine per cent of the vote, coming in fifth after former speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich, who won 10 per cent.

The Financial Times

‘Anti-gay’… I mean, ‘pro-family’

By Emma Teitel - Friday, January 6, 2012 at 5:16 PM - 0 Comments

Everybody’s talking about Rick Santorum, a.k.a. the previously ignored Republican primary candidate from Pennsylvania (also Jerry Seinfeld’s unfunny, Roman Catholic doppelganger) who couldn’t get a word in edgewise at any of the GOP debates. Until this week, he was far better known for his “Google Problem” than his warmongering, privacy quashing political aspirations. Today Santorum is a rising star, setting his socially conservative sights on the state of New Hampshire, after placing an extremely close second to Romney in the Iowa caucuses this week. He seems to think his near-victory in Iowa is proof that you don’t have to be a moderate to win a general election.

Iowa, however, isn’t America, something the former senator was rudely reminded of at a New Hampshire university last night, when his gay-marriage-will-lead-to-polygamy argument was met with unanimous boos:

That Santorum will flounder is almost certain (it’s only a matter of time before talking heads and comedians start lambasting him as fiercely as they did Bachmann and Perry) but mainstream and liberal media could quicken the process if only they’d avoid using the manipulative terminology Santorum and friends use to espouse their anti-gay rights, and anti-privacy beliefs. For too long, grossly dishonest phrases like “pro-family” and “family values” (phrases invented by and for America’s religious right) have been used by mainstream publications to describe the political profiles of Republican candidates. Take this example (one of many) from the Boston Globe:

Santorum, a Catholic, has campaigned on a strong family values platform.

The above is simply not true. Santorum may say he is campaigning on a “strong family values platform,” but it doesn’t take a Ph.D. in ethics to understand that revoking adoption and marriage rights for gay people (something Santorum has expressed keen interest in doing) is not in the best interest of families. Then again, Santorum’s definition of what constitutes a family is decidedly limited (let’s just say he doesn’t see eye to eye with Mrs. Doubtfire).

Anyway, enough with this doublespeak. It’s lazy journalism for reputable publications to use terms like “pro-family” and “family values” out of context in reference to a political candidate. Just because Santorum and company cloak their bigotry in euphemisms, doesn’t mean we have to follow suit and use their language. Rick Santorum is not running on a “pro family platform.” He is running on a pro-heterosexual-family-and-no-contraceptives-please!-platform. Just as “pro-life” is a gross euphemism for “anti-abortion,” “pro-family” is a gross euphemism for “anti-gay.”

The GOP goes to pieces

By Luiza Ch. Savage - Friday, January 6, 2012 at 6:00 AM - 0 Comments

Charlie Neibergall/AP

The night before the vote in the Iowa caucuses, Rick Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania, stood grinning in disbelief at a Pizza Ranch restaurant in a suburb of Des Moines, surrounded by throngs of supporters who had turned the place into a mob scene where they faced a real risk of getting trampled. Or at least suffering a smack to the head with the butt end of a television camera from a major U.S. network or even one from the U.K. or Japan.

Santorum was suddenly a Republican front-runner, a conservative Catholic surging on the strength of Iowa’s evangelical voters. The next night, as Maclean’s went to press, he was locked in a dead heat with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in the caucuses’ vote, the first vote in the GOP’s nomination process.

For months, Santorum had languished with support in the single digits and only a few questions tossed his way during televised debates. Now, sporting his trademark sweater vest over a button-down shirt, with a boyish face and earnest demeanour, he had the air of a class president about him (if the class president had fathered seven kids ages three to 20 and put on a few pounds).

Continue…

Romney almost loses in Iowa

By macleans.ca - Wednesday, January 4, 2012 at 12:19 PM - 0 Comments

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney narrowly won the Iowa Republican caucus on Tuesday night, edging out second-place Rick Santorum, a two-time former senator, by a mere eight votes. More than 122,000 votes were cast, with Romney earning 30,015 to Santorum’s 30,007, Postmedia reports. The Iowa caucus is the first step in the bid to earn the nomination for Republican presidential candidate. Results were announced at 2.30 am E.T. following seven hours of waiting for a single precinct that ultimately determined the winner. Libertarian Ron Paul earned a strong third place with 26,186 votes. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich finished a disappointing fourth, while Texas governor Rick Perry was a distant fifth place with a mere 10 per cent of the vote. Sixth place finisher Michele Bachmann today announced her withdrawal from the GOP race.

Postmedia, Wall Street Journal

Can Romney win?

By John Parisella - Monday, June 13, 2011 at 4:54 PM - 8 Comments

Shortly after Mitt Romney’s official announcement he would run for the Republican nomination for 2012, some polls put the government in a very competitive race against Barack Obama for the White House. One survey showed Romney leading, and most others paint him as a serious challenger to Obama. Romney also has a solid lead over his fellow Republican aspirants.

From the outset, many Republican veterans have given Romney the advantage based on the decades-old tradition of choosing the runner-up from the previous race. Romney is far from a sure bet, but he is experienced and has some serious financial backing. Moreover, the rest of the field is weak by comparison at this stage in the race.

The race is only beginning and potential new candidates, such as former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, Michelle Bachmann, and, less likely, Sarah Palin, are bound to surface and make this race more unpredictable and more competitive. Continue…