Everyone is watching Canada’s sputtering housing market these days. Is it the beginning of a crash, or a much-hoped-for soft landing? Every piece of new data is thrust under the microscope. But if you happen to live in Canada’s largest city, you should view the monthly sales figures served up by the Toronto Real Estate Board with an extra-critical eye.

Last week, the board issued a hopeful-sounding press release. After several months of falling sales—down 20 per cent in December—it said the first two weeks of January suggested a mood shift. Sales were up 2.4 per cent to 1,469, compared to the 1,435 reported a year earlier. Prices were up, too—by four per cent, to an average of $459,728 across the Greater Toronto Area, or GTA. “The new year started off on a positive note with residential sales slightly above last year’s levels,” Toronto Real Estate Board president Ann Hannah said in a statement. “I am cautiously optimistic about this result.” Continue…